IEA - World Energy Outlook 2004

Informacions relacionades amb l'energia nuclear

Executive Summary

• According to the Reference Scenario, the world's energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than they are now.
• Fossil fuels will account for some 85% of the increase in world primary demand.
• Worldwide nuclear capacity is projected to increase slightly, but the share of nuclear power in total electricity generation will decline. A substantial amount of capacity will be added, but this will be mostly offset by reactor retirements. Three-quarters of existing nuclear cpacity in OECD Europe is expected to be retired by 2030, because reactors will have reached the end of their life or because governments plan to phase out nuclear power. Nuclear generation will increase in a number of Asian countries, notable, China, South Korea, Japan and India.
• Two thirds of the increase in global energy demand will come from developing countries.
• If current government policies do not change, CO2 emissions will be more than 60% higher in 2030 than now.
• Meeting projected demand will entail cumulative investment of some $16 trillion from 2003 to 2030, or $568 billion per year.
• Achieving a truly sustainable energy system will call for technological breakthroughs that radically alter how we produce and use energy.

World Nuclear Energy Demand (Mtoe)

________1971__2002__2010__2020__2030__anual growth

Nuclear___29___692___778___ 776___764_____0,4%

Nuclear Power as a Primary Source of Energy

The role of nuclear power will decline progressively over the Outlook period. The rate of construction of new reactors is expected to keep pace with the rate at which old reactors are retired. This is both, because nuclear power will have trouble competing with other technologies and because many countries have restriccions on new construction or policies to phase out nuclear power. As a result, nuclear production will peak soon after 2010 and then decline gradually. Its share of world primary demand will drop from 7% at present to 6% in 2010 and at 5% at 2030. Nuclear power will increase in only a few countries, mostly in Asia. It is projected to fall in Europe. These projections, however, are subject to considerable uncertainty. Possible changes in government policies on nuclear power and public attitudes toward it could lead to nuclear power playing a much more important role than projected here.

Electricity Market Outlook

• World electricity demand will double between 2002 and 2030, most in developing countries.
• The global power sevtor will need about 4.800 GWe of new capacity between now and 2030 to meet projected demand and to replace ageing infraestructure.
• Nuclear power generation will increase in absoltue terms, but its share will fall. Nearly 40% of existing nuclear plants will be retired.
• By 2030, the power sector could account for almost 45% of global energy-related CO2 emissions.

Indicative Mid-term Generating Costs of New Power Plants (p. 195)

Gas (CCGT)______32 - 40 $/Mwh

Coal____________34 - 42 $/MWh

Nuclear____________46 $/MWh__($25 investment, $15 O&M, $6 fuel)

Nuclear Power in the World

There are 31 countries in the world operating nuclear power plants. These plantas had a capacity of 359 GWe in 2002, when they produced 2.654 TWh of electricity. Over 85% of nuclear electricity is produced in 17 countries that are members of OECD. In the Reference Scenario, world nuclear capacity is projected to increase slightly, reaching 3776 GWe in 2030. New nuclear plants with combined capacity of 150 GWe are expected to be built around the world, the largest in OECD Europe (40 GWe), China (30 GWe), Russia, Korea, Japan and India.

However, most of this capacity will replace older reactors in France, the only OECD country so far that anticipates such a large scale replacement of its nuclear base before 2030 (many of France's existing reactors are expected to be replaced with new ones after they reach 40 years of operating lifetime). Three- quarters of existing nuclear capacity in OECD Europe is expected to be retired by 2030, because reactors will have reached the end of their life or because governments have adopted policies to phase out nuclear power. Nuclear capacity will increase in a number of Asian countries, notably in China, South Korea, Japan and India. Nuclear will increase its share in electricity generation in all four countries.

Nuclear capacity in North America is expected to increase in the near term and then fall back to its current level by 2030. Most existing power plants are expected to be in operation in 2030. Over a hundred nuclear units in the US have already implemented power level increases (also known as "uprates") or have applied for them. These increases are expected to add the equivalent of a few new plants to US nuclear capacity. After 2020, some older reactors could be retired bringing nuclear capacity to 109 GWe by 2030, the same level as in 2002. No nuclear power plants are projected n the region, as gas and coal plants are expected to be more economical.

The US DOE has put in place a programme to identify sites for new nuclear power plants, to develop advanced nuclear plant technologies, and to demonstrate new regulatory processes. The DOE expects this programme will lead private companies to decide by next year to order new nuclear power plants by 2010. Three applications from industry have been submitted so far.

Nuclear power is the largest source of electricity generation of in the EU, supplying nearly a third of electrical demand. Nuclear capacity in the EU is expected to decline from 133 GWe in 2002 to 71 GWe in 2030. The share of nuclear power in electricity generation will fall to 13%.

Nuclear Policy in OECD Countries

Nuclear policy contributes to the electricity supply mix of 17 out of the 30 OECD countries. It also contributes to the power supply of some countries that do not have nuclear plants but import power from countries that do. These nuclear plants had a combined capacity of 302 GWe and produced 2.276 TWh of electricity in 2002. The share of nuclear in total electricity generation varies significantly from one country to another, from 79% in France to 4% in the Netherlands (Fig. 6.8).

Three countries have policies in place to phase out nuclear power. The German government and the country's electricity industry agreed in June 2000 to a phase out of existing nuclear stations after 32 years of operation. Belgium plans to shut down its nuclear stations after 40 years of operation. Sweden's parliament has voted to phase-out nuclear power, but the timing is not yet clear. The Slovack Republic is expectedto shut down two reactors, considered unsafe, following an agreement with the EU. In Spain, the new government has talked about phasing-out nuclear power but there is no firm decision yet.

Four countries, France, Japan and Korea, plan to increase their use of nuclear power. In France the National Assembly has endorsed nuclear power as a priority and France plans to put a demonstration European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) in place in about a decade. EPRs will replace existing reactors, which are to be shut down after 40 years of operation. Findland's fifth nuclear reactor, of EPR design, is expected to be completed by 2010. Japan and Korea are continuing to build nuclear plants, but Japan recently scaled down its nuclear programme significantly.

There are no nuclear plants under construction, nor are ther specific restrictions, in the remaining OECD countries. In Switzerland, a moratorium on costruction of new nuclear plants has expired. The Dutch government considers that the Borssele plant, which was to have shut down in 2004, should stay open until the end of its economic life. The future role of nuclear power is being keenly debated in a number of countries, including teh US, Canada, the Czech Republic, Turkey and UK.

Nuclear capacity will increase in Russia. It will decline in the rest of the transition economies. Several new reactors will be built in Russia, but most existing nuclear plants are expected to be decomissioned by 2030. Lithuania and Bulgaria have agreed with their EU partners to shut down some of their older reactors in the near future.

Share of Nuclear Power in Electricity Generation in OECD Countries, 2002

(ver Figura 6.8, p. 202)

Nuclear Plant Capacity Additions by Region, 2003-2030

(ver Figura 6.9, p.202)

China had six nuclear reactors in commercial operation at the end of 2002. Two more reactors started operation in 2003 and one in 2004 bringing total capacity to 6.6 GWe. Two more reactors are under construction, with one of them expected to begin commercial operation in 2004. There are plans to build more nuclear power plants in the future. Indeed, the programme appears to have accelerated recently with the approval of two new projects in July 2004. China's nuclear capacity is projected to rise to 35 GWe by 2030 to supply 5% of the country's electricity.